Dollar Strengthens Against Euro, Recovers Losses Versus Yen After U.S. Jobs Data

Dollar Strengthens Against Euro, Recovers Losses Versus Yen After U.S. Jobs Data

Friday, April 4, 2025 / No Comments

 

The U.S. dollar gained ground against the euro and trimmed earlier losses against the yen on Friday, following the release of stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls data for March.

The U.S. economy added 228,000 jobs last month, significantly outperforming the revised figure of 117,000 jobs for February, according to the Labor Department. Despite the robust employment numbers, the dollar’s reaction remained moderate as investors kept a cautious eye on the potential fallout from new trade tariffs.

FX Market Reaction:

The euro dipped by 0.21% against the dollar, trading at $1.103, while the greenback cut its losses versus the yen, now 0.29% lower at 145.67 yen.

Uto Shinohara, a senior investment strategist at Mesirow Currency Management, noted that although the job data exceeded expectations, currency movements remained muted. “The markets are more focused on tariff-related risks, as China’s retaliatory measures have stirred recession fears,” Shinohara explained.

Earlier on Friday, China announced new tariffs of 34% on U.S. imports, marking the most significant escalation yet in the trade conflict with the Trump administration. The announcement sparked concerns of a global economic downturn, pushing risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar lower while bolstering safe-haven assets such as the Swiss franc.

Currency Highlights:

• Euro/USD: Down 0.21% at $1.103

• USD/JPY: Down 0.29% at 145.67

• Dollar Index: Up 0.93% at 102.742

• AUD/USD: Down 3.26% at $0.6121

• GBP/USD: Down 0.74% at $1.30

• USD/CAD: Up 0.78% at 1.4206

Despite the upbeat jobs report, ongoing trade tensions are keeping investors on edge. With heightened volatility in the FX market, analysts advise caution as geopolitical factors continue to weigh heavily on currency movements.

Top Stock Movers Now: Apple, Target, Lamb Weston, and More

Top Stock Movers Now: Apple, Target, Lamb Weston, and More

Thursday, April 3, 2025 / No Comments

 

U.S. equities are experiencing significant declines at midday, primarily driven by the Trump administration’s newly announced reciprocal tariffs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq are all in the red, with major stocks feeling the brunt of the impact.

Apple (AAPL) led the downturn, sinking after President Trump imposed a 34% import tax on China, adding to previously announced levies. Apple, which manufactures approximately 90% of its hardware in China, is notably vulnerable to these tariffs.

Retailers, including Target (TGT), also saw their shares tumble as concerns mount that the increased tariffs could squeeze profit margins unless prices are raised across the board. Acuity (AYI) shares also dropped after its second-quarter revenue and profits fell short of analysts' expectations.

On the other hand, Lamb Weston (LW) emerged as one of the few bright spots in the market, with the frozen potato company exceeding quarterly earnings estimates. Similarly, grocery chain Kroger (KR) saw its stock rise, benefiting from a surge in consumer staples investments.

Meanwhile, global markets reacted to the tariffs with oil futures falling, the 10-year Treasury yield dropping, and gold futures experiencing a decline. The U.S. dollar weakened against the euro, pound, and yen, while major cryptocurrencies also saw declines.

Bitcoin Price Risks Drop to $71K as Trump Tariffs Impact US Business Outlook

Bitcoin Price Risks Drop to $71K as Trump Tariffs Impact US Business Outlook

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Bitcoin (BTC) faces heightened risk of falling to $71,000 amid pressures from US trade tariffs, as warned by Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments. Edwards highlighted that the recent increase in tariffs, announced by former President Donald Trump, has triggered a more significant drop in Bitcoin compared to US stocks. Bitcoin’s fall of 8.5% on April 2 stands in stark contrast to the modest 0.7% rise in the S&P 500.

The US business outlook, reflected in the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey (BOS), shows a sharp decline to levels not seen since 2024's start, signaling heightened uncertainty comparable to crises in 2000, 2008, and 2022. Edwards noted that these risks could lead Bitcoin to test key levels, with a potential "sizable bounce" if it reaches $71,000.

Further analysis suggests that macroeconomic factors, including the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy, will play a pivotal role in determining Bitcoin's trajectory, with a close above $91,000 signaling a bullish outlook. Meanwhile, an anticipated influx of global liquidity could provide some support for Bitcoin's recovery in the coming months.

BofA Views GBP/CHF Pullback as Bullish Opportunity and Sees AUD Outperforming G10 Currencies by 2025 End

BofA Views GBP/CHF Pullback as Bullish Opportunity and Sees AUD Outperforming G10 Currencies by 2025 End

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Bank of America (BofA) analysts are projecting that the Australian Dollar (AUD) will outperform all other G10 currencies by the end of 2025, reversing their earlier bearish stance. This shift comes amid recent developments in U.S. tariff policies, which have significantly impacted global equity markets and currency movements.

Despite the anticipated impact of these tariffs, BofA sees a bullish outlook for the AUD. Analysts attribute this to factors such as the expected depreciation of the U.S. Dollar (USD) and the delayed effects of China's stimulus measures. Furthermore, the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy remains cautious, with only two rate cuts predicted for 2025.

The outlook is favorable for AUD/CNH, with a target price set at 4.89, due to the currency pair's lower correlation with the USD. BofA also anticipates that USD/CNH could rise to 7.5 by the end of the quarter, although the analysts caution that any disorderly devaluation of the Chinese Yuan (CNY) could present risks to their forecast.

BofA Sees Bullish Opportunity in GBP/CHF Amid Tariffs-Induced Pullback

Analysts at Bank of America (BofA) have flagged a recent dip in the GBP/CHF currency pair as an attractive entry point for investors with a bullish outlook. This recommendation comes after the U.S. government's announcement on April 2, imposing new tariffs that caused significant short-term market fluctuations.

The U.S. has implemented a 31% reciprocal tariff on Swiss imports and a 10% tariff on British goods. Despite these developments, the Swiss Franc (CHF) has seen an uptick against other European currencies and the U.S. Dollar (USD). Market experts attribute this rise to global investors flocking to safe-haven assets amid growing market uncertainty.

BofA analysts believe that the temporary disruption in the GBP/CHF uptrend will likely reverse once the current market volatility settles, making the pullback an appealing opportunity for those expecting the pair to resume its upward trajectory.

For now, the overnight decline in GBP/CHF provides a potential entry level for those optimistic about its future performance, according to BofA's market analysis.

Top Stock Movers Now: TKO Group , DoorDash, BlackBerry, and More

Top Stock Movers Now: TKO Group , DoorDash, BlackBerry, and More

Wednesday, April 2, 2025 / No Comments

 

At midday, U.S. stocks edged higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all posting gains. Investors are closely watching for an expected tariff announcement from President Donald Trump.

DoorDash (DASH) shares surged after forming a strategic partnership with Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), effectively ending Uber Eats' exclusivity with the pizza chain. Shares of Uber Technologies (UBER) also ticked up.

Tesla (TSLA) shares rebounded, climbing higher after a report from Politico suggested Elon Musk might soon step down from his DOGE role, despite weaker-than-expected Q1 deliveries.

TKO Group (TKO) saw gains as Meta Platforms (META) agreed to become a technology partner with its UFC division.

Meanwhile, BlackBerry (BB) shares plunged after the company released disappointing revenue forecasts, falling short of analysts' estimates.

Newly public Newsmax (NMAX) shares also fell sharply, continuing a volatile trading week. Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) shares dipped after the company revealed that insider shareholders might sell their stock.

Elsewhere, oil and gold futures inched higher, while the 10-year Treasury yield remained mostly unchanged. The U.S. dollar weakened against the euro and pound but strengthened versus the yen. In the crypto market, Bitcoin rose while Ethereum saw a slight decline.

Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $250K by 2025 If Fed Shifts to QE

Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $250K by 2025 If Fed Shifts to QE

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Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has forecasted that Bitcoin could surge to $250,000 by the end of 2025 if the U.S. Federal Reserve shifts toward quantitative easing (QE). Hayes attributes this potential price spike to an expected increase in the supply of fiat money, which he believes will be a major driver for Bitcoin's price.

In a recent Substack post, Hayes explained that if the Fed moves away from its quantitative tightening (QT) strategy and embraces QE, Bitcoin could rise from a local low of $76,500 to $250,000 by the end of the year. He pointed to the Fed's decision to reduce the Treasury runoff cap from $25 billion to $5 billion, while maintaining a $35 billion cap on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) runoff, as evidence that QE could be on the horizon.

Hayes added that the Fed’s potential actions will likely lead to "treasury QE," which he believes will propel Bitcoin's value higher once formally announced. This prediction comes as Bitcoin’s price continues to be closely tied to the supply of fiat money and the broader economic landscape.

Despite Hayes' bullish forecast, other analysts are more conservative, with some predicting that Bitcoin could top out at around $132,000 by the end of 2025, based on global liquidity trends and the M2 money supply growth.

Market sentiment, however, remains divided. A majority of traders (60%) are betting on Bitcoin reaching $110,000 by 2025, while only 9% expect the cryptocurrency to reach the $250,000 mark.

In the meantime, Bitcoin's price and market dynamics remain influenced by global economic factors, including fears around rising tariffs, particularly ahead of an upcoming tariff announcement by former U.S. President Donald Trump.

UBS Sees Limited Downside for AUD/USD, Targets EUR/USD at 1.07 for Q2

UBS Sees Limited Downside for AUD/USD, Targets EUR/USD at 1.07 for Q2

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The Australian dollar (AUD) is expected to remain resilient against the U.S. dollar (USD), with its downside limited to the 0.60-0.62 range in the near term, according to UBS FX strategists.

Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to maintain the cash rate at 4.1%, the AUD/USD pair saw a slight uptick. The RBA’s decision, in line with market expectations, reflects easing inflation pressures. However, RBA Governor Michele Bullock highlighted ongoing tightness in the labor market, emphasizing that inflation remains the central focus, distancing the RBA's stance from that of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Despite a temporary increase in the AUD, the currency remains under pressure, lagging behind other G10 currencies. UBS analysts noted that the recent decision does not signal a dovish shift, but rather a cautious acknowledgment of global economic risks. With significant net-short positions and a slowdown in superannuation fund outflows, the strategists see limited downside for the AUD/USD pair and have upgraded the currency from “Neutral” to “Attractive.”

UBS Sets EUR/USD Q2 Target at 1.07

UBS has released its latest analysis of the currency market, offering insights into the Euro versus the US Dollar (EUR/USD). The investment bank remains cautious on EUR/USD, predicting a potential decline toward its second-quarter target of 1.07.

Additionally, UBS suggests that the current levels of the US dollar against the Japanese yen (USD/JPY) present an attractive opportunity for investors looking to increase their yen positions. The bank's short-term model indicates a fair value for USD/JPY closer to 145.

This analysis reflects UBS's strategic outlook for the coming quarter, highlighting a cautious stance on EUR/USD and identifying potential opportunities in the yen.