Barclays Predicts EUR/USD to Decline Toward 1.06 Amid Trade Risks

Barclays Predicts EUR/USD to Decline Toward 1.06 Amid Trade Risks

Tuesday, March 25, 2025 / No Comments

 

Barclays maintains a bullish outlook on the US dollar, despite growing economic uncertainties linked to President Trump's second term. The bank highlighted potential headwinds, including the impact of trade policies and a potentially tighter fiscal approach, which could weigh on the US economy.

While Europe's fiscal response particularly Germany’s measures has helped stabilize the euro, Barclays believes it may not be enough to drive a breakout from the EUR/USD’s two-year trading range of 1.02 to 1.09. With the currency pair currently hovering around 1.10, analysts suggest that the market has already priced in the benefits of fiscal expansion, whereas the risks of new US tariffs remain only partially factored in.

Barclays projects that as trade concerns escalate, the euro will face renewed pressure, pushing EUR/USD toward the 1.06 level in the near term.

Top Crypto News Today

Top Crypto News Today

Monday, March 24, 2025 / No Comments

 

Saylor’s Strategy Expands Bitcoin Holdings Beyond 500K BTC

Michael Saylor’s investment firm, Strategy, has once again made waves in the crypto world, purchasing 6,911 Bitcoin for $584 million during a recent market dip. According to a newly filed SEC report, the acquisition, made between March 17 and March 23, brings Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings to 506,137 BTC worth approximately $33.7 billion at an average purchase price of $66,608 per coin.

This milestone follows Strategy’s recent preferred stock offering, which generated $711 million in capital. The stock was sold at $85 per share with a 10% coupon, and the firm is expected to settle the transaction by March 25, 2025.

Bitcoin Eyes $90K as Trump Signals Tariff Easing

Bitcoin could be setting up for a surge toward $90,000, driven by shifting U.S. economic policies. According to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, former President Donald Trump’s softened stance on reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2 may be a bullish catalyst for crypto markets.

Thielen also pointed to recent signals from the Federal Reserve, suggesting that it may look past short-term inflationary pressures, potentially paving the way for future rate cuts. These developments have turned several key Bitcoin reversal indicators bullish, with BTC’s 21-day moving average now at $85,200.

Cathie Wood to Lead AI Education Initiative in El Salvador

ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood is set to kick off El Salvador’s artificial intelligence (AI) public education program with an inaugural lecture. Announced by the country’s Bitcoin Office, the initiative will provide university-level AI education led by industry experts.

Wood, a strong advocate for Bitcoin and emerging technologies, has previously met with El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele to discuss the country’s pro-innovation policies. She believes that with the right approach, El Salvador could see its GDP multiply tenfold over the next five years.

Top Stock Movers: Tesla, Nucor, Supermicro, and More

Top Stock Movers: Tesla, Nucor, Supermicro, and More

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Stocks surged at midday as reports suggested President Donald Trump’s planned tariffs, set for April 2, may not be as far-reaching as initially expected. The Nasdaq jumped 2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 each climbed more than 1%.

Tesla (TSLA) shares gained on the tariff news and reports that the EV maker is preparing to roll out its highest-level self-driving technology in China.

Steel stocks, including Nucor (NUE), rallied after UBS upgraded the sector, citing Trump's tariff policy as a protective measure for U.S. manufacturers.

AZEK (AZEK) shares soared after Australian building materials giant James Hardie Industries (JHX) announced an $8.75 billion acquisition of the outdoor living products manufacturer.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) saw its stock decline after Goldman Sachs downgraded the company, warning of increasing competition in the AI server market.

Meanwhile, 23andMe Holding (ME) shares plummeted as the struggling ancestry company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, aiming to attract potential buyers. The company also announced the resignation of co-founder and CEO Anne Wojcicki.

Lockheed Martin (LMT) continued its decline after losing a key U.S. fighter jet contract to Boeing (BA), prompting Bank of America to downgrade the stock and slash its price target.

Elsewhere, oil prices rose, gold remained steady, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note climbed. The U.S. dollar strengthened against the euro and yen, while most major cryptocurrencies traded higher.

BofA Predicts Stronger U.S. Dollar Amid Currency Rebalancing

BofA Predicts Stronger U.S. Dollar Amid Currency Rebalancing

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Bank of America (BofA) analysts have revised their long-term forecasts for the U.S. dollar, now anticipating a stronger performance through the end of 2025. This adjustment follows the U.S. election results, which have prompted a shift in consensus among currency forecasters. Previously bearish on the U.S. dollar for the remainder of 2024, the consensus has now turned more bullish. 

The year-end median forecast for 2025 now predicts only a modest rise in the EUR/USD to 1.05, contrasting with the 12-month EUR/USD forwards average of 1.0679 observed over the past month. ​Additionally, BofA has highlighted significant currency rebalancing needs that could lead to a robust rebound for the U.S. dollar. Their research suggests an expected shift in investment flows into dollar-denominated assets, particularly equities, which have underperformed compared to their European counterparts. This anticipated rebalancing is based on the conventional 60/40 portfolio model, commonly used by financial institutions to maintain a balanced allocation between equities and fixed income instruments. 

BofA's analysis indicates an underperformance of dollar assets relative to EUR assets, suggesting a substantial rebalancing inflow into the dollar. ​These insights underscore the evolving dynamics in currency markets and the potential for a stronger U.S. dollar in the near term.

COT Reports for FOREX MAJOR (simplified )Last Update: 03/24/2025

COT Reports for FOREX MAJOR (simplified )Last Update: 03/24/2025

Sunday, March 23, 2025 / No Comments

Boost your Forex trading strategies with our straightforward analysis of the Commitments of Traders (COT) Reports, showcasing non-commercial futures positions in major currency pairs. Our latest update, as of March 24, 2025, delivers key insights into market sentiment and trader behavior, empowering you to make well-informed decisions. Stay ahead of the market with our clear and concise COT breakdowns. Don't forget to activate notifications after downloading the COT Trading app(LINK) to receive real-time alerts.If you need specific data or have any requests, don’t hesitate to reach out.

COT Reports for NQ, GOLD, BTC,NG and Crude OIL (simplified) last update :03/24/2025

COT Reports for NQ, GOLD, BTC,NG and Crude OIL (simplified) last update :03/24/2025

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Enhance your trading strategies with our free and user-friendly Commitments of Traders (COT) reports for NASDAQ, Gold, Bitcoin (BTC), Natural Gas, and Crude Oil, updated with data through March 24, 2025. These reports provide in-depth insights into non-commercial futures positions across key markets, allowing you to assess market sentiment and make well-informed decisions. Stay ahead in NASDAQ, commodities, and cryptocurrency trading with our concise and insightful COT summaries. Don't forget to activate notifications after downloading the COT Trading app(LINK) to receive real-time alerts.If you need specific data or have any requests, don’t hesitate to reach out.

Top Stock Movers Now: Five Below, Jabil, Microchip Technology, and More

Top Stock Movers Now: Five Below, Jabil, Microchip Technology, and More

Thursday, March 20, 2025 / No Comments

 

U.S. markets extended their rally into a second day as investors reacted positively to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks, easing concerns over a potential economic slowdown. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), S&P 500, and Nasdaq all posted gains in midday trading.

Darden Sees Strong Consumer Spending, Shares Climb

Darden Restaurants (DRI), the parent company of Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse, reported that consumer demand for dining out remains resilient. The company’s optimistic outlook boosted its stock price, signaling confidence in discretionary spending trends.

Retail and AI Drive Stock Gains

Five Below (FIVE) shares surged after the discount retailer posted better-than-expected earnings, crediting strong holiday sales and an ambitious expansion plan.

Tech manufacturer Jabil (JBL) also impressed investors, delivering robust quarterly results and issuing an upbeat forecast, driven by rising demand for artificial intelligence (AI) products.

Microchip and Accenture Weigh on Market

Semiconductor firm Microchip Technology (MCHP) saw its shares slide after announcing that Macquarie Group will assist in selling its Fab 2 wafer fabrication facility in Arizona, a move signaling financial strain.

Consulting giant Accenture (ACN) also faced pressure as it warned that federal spending cuts are beginning to impact its revenue.

Stellantis Downgraded, Oil and Gold Gain

Stellantis (STLA) shares dropped following a Piper Sandler downgrade, with analysts citing uncertainty surrounding the automaker’s future prospects.